Friday, November 18, 2011

T... C U Later Boise

Good morning everyone.  As I prepare to make my predictions for this weekend's football contests, I think that it is only fair to warn you that I might not be fully awake yet...  I was just waited on by the most beautiful bank teller, and this blog came up during our conversation (she asked me if I was out running errands, and I mentioned that making my deposit was the only one, and that afterward I was heading home to make a post in my blog).  She responded by saying that she had thought about doing a blog, but that she didn't know if she was very interesting, and I had..... nothing......  :(  Anyway, I gave her the name of my blog and the website address before leaving, in case she did want to stop by here or ask me any questions about starting a blog.  So Gabrielle, if you are reading this, I think that you are interesting and I would definitely read your blog.  :)

While we're on the subject of looking completely foolish, let's talk about the Boise State Broncos...  I wrote an article here a little while back, documenting my belief that Boise State might be a little overrated.  Last Saturday they managed to lose a home game to a two-loss team that they were favored to beat by 15 points.  TCU, I LOVE YOU...  ;)  The worst part of this for Boise is that the Georgia Bulldogs keep winning football games, and they were making the thin resume' of the Broncos look better every time they took the field.  For those of you who don't know me very well, this isn't a matter of hating Boise State.  I have often been the underdog and rooted for the underdog, with one of my favorite quotes about myself being, "people have underestimated me my whole life."  The problem I have would be putting an undefeated team who plays a weak schedule in the national championship game over other teams who had to face much tougher competition.  This is why I believe we need a playoff system, which will be the topic of my post here on Tuesday.  Once again, thank you Horned Frogs!

Tim Tebow has gone 4-1 since taking over as the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos, and I picked all four college football games correctly for the second week in a row - what is going on here?!  Yeah, do you remember last week when I said that I didn't like any of the matchups in the College Pick 'Em contest at ESPN?  Of course, a perfect 10 for 10...  :P  Picking the college games straight up, I am now 23-8 on the season after Oregon, Georgia, Nebraska, and Notre Dame all won last week.  As pleased as I am with those results, I am equally frustrated that I was once again 1-2 on my NFL selections, bringing my record for picking against the spread to 12-9 this year.  The Steelers beat the Bengals by a touchdown, covering the - 3 1/2, but the Patriots/Jets game went over 47 (53), and not only did the Ravens not cover the - 6 1/2, but they lost OUTRIGHT, to the SEAHAWKS?!...  On to this week's games...

Notre Dame is hosting Boston College this weekend in a matchup which features a 7-3 team facing a 3-7 team.  I pick the Irish to win this game, but I will be interested to see if they will win by more than the 24 1/2 points that they are favored to win by, just because they are playing the Eagles, one of their old rivals.  The first game that we're looking at pitting two Top 25 teams against each other looks so tough to pick on paper that the home team is a 3 1/2 point favorite (Las Vegas generally gives the home team credit for three points just for playing at home).  With that being said (and remember that I am picking the college games straight up), I am taking #18 Michigan to win at home against #16 Nebraska.  I think that the Wolverines will win because the Cornhuskers have not seen many players like Denard Robinson, but this should be an extremely close game.  I also like #5 Oklahoma to win on the road at #22 Baylor.  The Bears have lost some of the spark that they had early in the season, and Oklahoma still has a lot to play for, possibly a national championship if they can win out and get some help.  I am also going to take #4 Oregon at home against #18 USC.  This is a spot where you wouldn't be shocked if USC jumped up and gave the Ducks a fight, but the appears that star wide receiver Robert Woods will be missing this game for the Trojans.

Now it is time to take a look at the NFL.  I honestly make these picks while I am sitting at the computer typing my posts, so I normally don't look at the lines for the Thursday games before they are played.  Last night while I was watching the Jets and the Broncos, one of my friends told me that the over/under on the game was 39 1/2.  I instantly thought that the under looked attractive, but I guess that I am not allowed to claim that game, so let's see what else is out there...  As I peruse these games, it seems that I will be taking a lot of unders this week.  Let's start with the Titans at the Falcons - I will go with under 44 points.  Both of these teams are hovering around the .500 mark, have decent defenses, are in the hunt for a playoff spot.  I think that each team will play this game cautiously in an attempt to avoid making mistakes, so I believe that it will stay under.  I also like the under 41 points in Baltimore, where the Ravens are hosting the Bengals.  This will give us an opportunity to see if both of these teams are among the best defensively in the league.  ;)  For my final pick, I will take the under 41 in the Arizona/San Francisco game.  The 49ers have a solid defense, a banged-up Frank Gore, and always try to give Alex Smith a gameplan where he doesn't have to do too much.  We'll soon find out if this reasoning can get me over the 1-2 mark this week...

On Monday I'll be back with my ramble, which is quickly overtaking these Friday football predictions as my most popular weekly post, although part of that may have to be attributed to the fact that I added the 'Live Traffic Feed' from Feedjit to the blog right after posting the ramble on Tuesday this week.  I hope that you enjoy your football games and have a great weekend!



  1. MIA, SEA, WAS, CIN, and ????? for my weekly $20 contribution to SoutPoint's bottom line ;)

  2. I'm responding to this assuming that you're picking winners versus the spread (and not straight up) my friend. I thought about Seattle as one of my three for the post, I can never figure out the Dolphins, Washington makes me nervous, and the Bengals make me really nervous... :) Maybe the Bears at home, if the weather in Chicago is supposed to be nasty. I went with just over/under picks (okay, all unders) because none of the lines really caught my eye. Good luck! :)