Thursday, September 18, 2014

Hedging My Bets

Good morning everyone.  I'm coming to you live from the Mirage Poker Room now as I'm charging my phone (at some point I became smart enough to start bringing my own charger with me from home).  I haven't played a second of poker in here since I returned to Las Vegas, but I'm sure that the security folks are satisified with the hours upon hours that they've observed me futilely coloring losing parlay tickets here at the Mirage.  I can just imagine them on the other end of those cameras mounted everywhere, enjoying a good chuckle as they see my picks for each week (much like yourself)...  Strangely enough, no one in the poker room has said anything to me so far (about borrowing this corner table and plugging in), but it's probably just because I brighten up the room...

I find myself at that crossroads again ("Should I move to Reno, or should I move somewhere else, or should I just have better luck???") after an uninspiring weekend of football last weekend.  I was off to a pretty good start on Sunday through the early games, and then I started hedging my bets (literally).  Although the Falcons/Bengals over didn't pan out, I hit the Cowboys/Titans and Patriots/Vikings unders.  This left me with bets that I was very confident in (Seahawks -6, Packers -8 1/2, 49ers -7, Eagles over on Monday night)...  SO, because I had Seattle and Green Bay on numerous tickets, I bet against each of them in "2-team" parlays with the Eagles under on Monday night.  Well, BOTH the Seahawks AND Packers didn't cover, leaving me with live tickets where I had the UNDER on the Eagles game, and ZERO remaining tickets where I had the over.  I ended up "over hedging" (patent pending - on the term, not on the brilliance of my stupidity - did I just say that???).  ANYWAY, I didn't hedge back enough to the side I liked originally, and of course THAT GAME went over.  What this meant for me is that I actually lost more by hedging than if I would have just ate my original bets.  

Before I cry too much about what I just wrote for you, let me tell you about a parlay ticket that I saw on Saturday at the Monte Carlo.  Iwas finishing up my freeroll hours for this Saturday's tournament (overachiever, I know) when the guy sitting next to me shows me some of his pending parlay tickets.  This happened to be at a 1/2 NL table (which we'll discuss more in a minute) because their 2-6 spread limit game broke at FOUR P.M. on Saturday, and did not restart.  This obviously thrilled me because I've been running so horribly in cash games, but there I sat...  ANYWAY, this guy has an 8-team parlay ticket which will pay him $800.00 if it wins.  I didn't see how much he had invested, and it was a teaser, but the point is that he was in line to make $800.00.  He had already won 6 games, and the pair of remaining games had both Arizona and Arizona State giving up 10 points.  At the time, both teams were winning by 14.  I didn't say anything to him, but in my head, I'm just BESIDE MYSELF that he didn't hedge.  Losing either of those final bets is the difference between $800.00 and nothing...  Sure enough, when I checked the scores the next day, one of those teams only managed to win their game by 7 points, and his $800.00 ticket was just a worthless bookmark...  Now before you start crying for Argentina (that was his name, really - okay, I'm lying), he showed me another parlay ticket that did cash for $800.00.  Even that one made me cringe in that he didn't hedge it at all.  The winner had Nebraska pummeling Fresno State if you're interested, and that game being televised brought on the whole conversation.  

In related news, this 1/2 game was CRAZY!!!  A guy that kept buying in for $300.00 every time that he busted raised to $25.00 preflop almost every hand, and this was followed by c-bets and loose calls from him.  Par for the course, I was CARD DEAD, and just spectated as I met my freeroll hour requirement.  As luck would have it, not TWO HANDS after verifying that I had reached my needed time, I looked down to A K of hearts.  I went ahead and called 30 (yes, now it was raises from 2 to 30), and promptly saw a 5-way flop of 6 7 8 of clubs (that's my life in a nutshell lately).  In the most unbelievable thing that I saw at this table, a guy who had busted out just after my arrival, and needed to borrow $20.00 from a friend to complete his $100.00 rebuy back into the game, worked the new $100.00 up to $800.00 with the maniac at the table, and then proceeded to lose the WHOLE $800.00 BACK, all the way down to the felt...

Anyway, so I'm at that crossroads again, needing a big freeroll cash on Saturday or a football miracle on Sunday to feel comfortable enough to stay here in Vegas.  What makes Reno more palatable than Vegas if I have to work is that it would be so much cheaper to live there.  What makes Reno a more attractive place than Texas and other possible prospects is that I could still bet football and play poker there.  Anyway, stay tuned, because I have no idea where I'll be at this time next week.  

I should be back sometime tomorrow with football picks from Joey and myself.  I don't know when "Football Friday' became a Thursday thing, but that definitely has to stop...  :)  Have a great day and I'll see you soon...


  1. Well good luck this weekend, I hope you do well enough to stay in Vegas. Perhaps you should try your luck at Video Blackjack, I hear that's a winner. Reno really that much cheaper than Vegas? Also, won't it be harder to survive there without a car since the casinos are spread out?

    And seems like your blueprint is dependent on playing for freerolls and cashing in them. Have you considered just playing poker and trying to succeed at that rather than concentrating more on playing hours for freerolls?

    1. Looks like I could live in Reno for a year for the costt of living in Vegas for eight months, and be closer to things. My walk to the Strip here is about 25 minutes. My problem right now is that I'm running bad in the cash games, either getting no cards, or getting cards that don't connect, or getting my big hands cracked. I don't see Reno as horrible, but it's true that I've never been there... :) We'll see how the weekend goes Rob - this freeroll has treated me well, and I'm "due" at football... ;)